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Prediction for CME (2023-09-14T07:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-14T07:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26915/-1
CME Note: Bright CME NW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2 that may be associated with a faint partial to full halo. The source is a filament eruption seen between AR's 13425 & 13423 stretching from ~N22W40 to ~N26W55. Eruption begins ~2023-09-14T06:40Z in SDO/AIA 304 followed by brightening at the foot points of the source location. Associated dimming, minor EUV wave, moving/opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcade are visible in most SDO/AIA wavelengths including 193, 171, 211, and 131. The visible dimming is seen primarily north of the filament location with the minor EUV wave primarily seen along the W/NW limb in SDO/AIA 211. An M-class flare is associated with the post-eruptive arcade occurring between AR's 13425 & 13423. Arrival signature is characterized by a relatively modest jump in ion density and temperature, as well as in magnetic field, with B total reaching 8nT. Preceded by a relatively gradual increase in solar wind speed from 400 to 480 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-17T01:53Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-17T04:07Z (-12.86h, +14.68h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2023/09/14 07:25Z
Plane of Sky 1: 13:40Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 22:00Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction
POS Difference: 8:20
POS Midpoint: 17:50Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:25

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.6
Travel Time: ~6.6 * 10:25 = 68:42

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-09-17T04:07Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours
 - Travel Time: 5%

Lead Time: 57.30 hour(s)
Difference: -2.23 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-09-14T16:35Z

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